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I'll just repost what I shared on your note:

I think your personal experience is perfectly consistent with the idea that calories matter most. I've also used both low carb and fasting to successfully manage weight and fat loss.

Nevertheless, the prevailing scientific consensus supports the calorie centric view. And there have even been controlled trials that more or less falsify the carb insulin hypothesis of obesity. (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28074888/).

The bodybuilding community is also a testament to the fact that calorie counting works consistently both for losing and gaining weight. And some bodybuilders and fitness folks will eat extremely high carb low fat diets both for weight loss and weight gain (conversely some opt for low carb), yet manage to lose fat consistently.

It may very well be that counting calories doesn't work for a lot of people over long periods of time. But then again, people don't tend to stick to diets for the rest of their lives and will often regain weight lost over time, even if the diet was successful for a while. In any case, it does come down to energy balance at the end of the day.

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"Low-carb diets are not good tools for weight loss because carbs are evil, but because they make it possible for (at least some) people to create an energy deficit over enough time."

While I agree that calorie deficits can enable one to lose weight, I do think this is also somewhat an oversimplification and a pure calorie restricted diet is not sustainable.

Insulin is the primary hormone that tells the body to store energy in the form of fat. Insulin production is triggered by the ingestion of food, but particularly by sugary/carb-laden foods. Frequent ingestion of these foods (which are favored by modern food production as I discussed here https://www.lianeon.org/p/the-paradox-of-processed-food ) can cause insulin resistance in those cells, which tells them to keep storing fat (and for you to keep eating more.)

Calories are not truly equal in impact on weight, fasting helps modulate the above hormonal disfunction, and even with a lot of calories ingested, you can still lose weight. It's working for me anyway.

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