Skepsis #36 - Simple ideas
The power and danger of simple ideas. How to deal with climate change. The best show on Netflix this year.
What I'm thinking about
Simple ideas are powerful - and dangerous
Simple ideas are useful because they convey a lot of information.
Simple ideas are powerful because they spread quickly.
Simple ideas are dangerous because they become dogma.
This is why memes work. Memes are like a meta-idea.
Perhaps even more powerful than memes are stories. People learn and understand through storytelling. Simple and attractive ideas are more easily communicated, so good ideas necessarily have to be packaged in a simple format for high transmissibility.
But many bad ideas are also simple ideas, and part of their attractiveness is that they are simple. A simple solution to what is really a much more complex problem. At best, such bad simple ideas are partial answers, at worst they are fake answers.
Look no further than conspiracy theories, racism, and all manner of ideological dogma. Dogma that is arguably the cause of most human suffering.
There are many more bad ideas than good ideas, and bad ideas seem to spread more quickly than good ones. Because they look like good ideas on the surface their simplicity makes them attractive.
So how can you tell a good idea from a bad idea?
The difference is that good ideas package a complex truth without losing its essence, and bad ideas are usually simple all the way down - and wrong.
Good simple ideas are actually complex ideas that have been simplified and packaged neatly, without losing their explanatory power (e.g., E = mc^2). They can be communicated simply and unpacked and examined because they have a deep and stable foundation beneath their simple veneer.
On the other hand, bad simple ideas can look like a good idea, but once you unpack them, you'll find they are more like a house of cards than a well-tested theory.
This is also the difference between real science and cargo-cult science. Cargo-cult science can look like real science on the surface but is devoid of depth and explanatory power. It's like the difference between intelligent design and natural selection.
Similarly, a lot of really successful startups are born out of a simple idea. But so are a lot of failed ones. The difference between the good ones and the failed ones is that the latter were just simple ideas with little to stand on, and the former were nuanced ideas packaged in a simple format.
In the end, this leaves us at somewhat of an impasse. We need good ideas to be simple, but it's hard to distinguish good ones from bad ones. The best we can do is try to make our good ideas more straightforward and expose the flaws of the bad ideas.
What I'm reading
You're only as good as your worst day
The way you behave, what you say, and what you do when the shit hits the fan is the true reflection of who you are, who you've made yourself to be. It's what people will remember you for.
It's in our worst moments that we have the opportunity to rise up and become the best versions of ourselves. People remember you for what you did in the moments of crisis.
You're only as good as your worst day because what you do then is what you'd do when you're put to the test. It's a performance you can't fake.
Unintended consequences in complex systems
Twitter thread: A story of inappropriate technology.
What I'm watching
How to give gifts like an economist
Queen's Gambit (Netflix)
A coming-of-age drama with a powerful female lead and chess prodigy revolving around the world of competitive chess set in the 50s and 60s. Probably one of the best shows of the year. Also a mini-series - no need to dedicate 3 years of your life to finish this one.
What I'm listening to
Jerry Seinfeld on the Tim Ferriss Show
An in-depth interview with one of the giants of comedy and entertainment. Jerry discusses his life, creative methods, what it was like making the Seinfeld TV show, and more. Very funny too, of course.
Rapid testing of COVID-19 on the Lex Fridman Podcast
An interview with immunologist and epidemiologist Michael Mina on how rapid antigen tests work and why we should be doing a lot more self-administered testing.
It's possible to do quick and simple self-administered tests that can determine with reasonably high accuracy whether or not you're positive with Sars-Cov-2 within 15 minutes. Frequent testing, even when it's not perfect, is probably our best tool to fight the spread of the virus, next to getting most people vaccinated.
It's astounding to me that health authorities have not been more aggressive with recommending or paying for people to get rapid testing - it can't be that hard. Individuals and businesses should be able to easily administer rapid antigen tests themselves, even without the help of "professionals". I suspect that the reasons for this hesitancy on the part of authorities are the same reason why they weren't recommending the wearing of masks early on in the pandemic.
Bill Gates on how we should deal with Climate Change
Climate change is probably the most daunting challenge of our time. Tackling it will require unprecedented amounts of innovation, investment, and global cooperation. Are we actually making progress yet? Can we really stop the worst effects of climate change?
I like Bill's fact-based and level-headed approach to dealing with this challenge. He shows there's a sensible middle ground we can embrace between the dogmatic activism of the far left and the conspiratorial science-denial of the far right.
We can be calm and collected without downplaying the severity of the situation. And we need to focus not on gimmicks and on virtue signaling but on what makes a real difference. A sense of urgency? Yes. But climate anxiety? Probably not helpful.
“The biggest changes need to happen at the governmental and societal levels, but you have a lot of power as an individual—although maybe not in the way you think.“
A question to ponder:
Are you a driver or a passenger? (Do your efforts matter?)
As always, stay safe out there.
/Phil