Skepsis #33: Should you set goals?
The art and science of goal setting. Foundational practices for a good life. The economy of Kazakhstan. And why 70 million people voted for Trump.
What I'm thinking about
Should you set goals?
In my personal life as well as at work I've spent quite some time recently setting and pursuing goals. Goals, objectives, targets, ambitions, visions. These topics are the bread and butter of self-help and popular business books. And more recently they've been accompanied by an increasing focus on routines, habits, and processes.
There seem to be two schools of thought when it comes to goal setting. Let's call it the old school and the new school. The new school argues that goal setting is largely a waste of time and that you're better off focusing on the system and the process (input) rather than the goal or outcome (output). After all, a good process will invariably lead you to your goals anyway. By definition, what you do - consciously or otherwise - determines whether or not you reach your goals.
The old school of thought focuses more on the goals themselves, how they are described, measured, and visualized. If you've clearly defined a SMART goal, or an OKR, with clear outcomes and metrics you're much more likely to hit your target. Goal setting fails primarily because people set bad goals, not because the goals themselves were bad or because they didn't know how to achieve them.
I now think that this is a kind of false dichotomy. Both paradigms are valuable and can offer guidance.
The scientific literature around goal setting from the past decades has clearly demonstrated the benefits and values of setting and pursuing goals. Goals have the ability to direct your attention in a productive direction and can help you achieve hard things since productivity can only be measured in relation to a goal.
The problem with goals is that they often change. They change because you learn new things and you change your mind about what you think is interesting and about what you value. A goal you once found motivating can eventually become a burden if you're not able to let it go.
Goals can also make you focus too narrowly. You get stuck on a local maxima rather than striving to reach the global maxima because you overly focus on a metric that doesn't optimize for the globally best point. As such, you get what you measure.
A hybrid approach
You want clear goals that remind you of the direction you want to go towards, you want some kind of sign showing you whether or not you're getting closer, and you want to outline the projects and tasks you should do in order to move closer to the desired outcome. This is perhaps obvious, yet not always easy to do in practice.
A the same time, you should be able to discard a goal as soon as it doesn't serve you anymore. Long-term goals in particular can grow stale or irrelevant. Since you discover what you want in practice, not in theory, goals are always under constant negotiation. You think you wanted X, but once you worked on A, B, or C for a while you realize that you actually wanted Y, or maybe Z. So while it's good to have a target to aim towards, you should think of goals as an emergent property of your experiences in combination with your values and overall ambitions. One informs the other in a never-ending cycle. Clear goals, loosely held.
Treat your goals as one of many possible paths to explore
There is an infinite number of potential futures (for ourselves as individuals and for humanity as a whole). These futures have different probabilities of happening. It is possible to shape the future by altering the probabilities. In this sense, goals are just a way to discriminate between these various outcomes.
Another way of saying this is that goal setting is a never-ending process of self-discovery and improvement. Have a curious mindset and see goals as proximate milestones, not as ends in and of themselves. They are stepping stones in the direction of general improvement. Every goal has a probability of leading you towards the theoretical global maxima. It's never a straight line, but a zig-zagging path.
Goals are always provisional
What if you achieve all your goals? Where do you end up? Isn't there always going to be something else? You've probably had the anti-climactic experience of having reached a goal you've been working towards for a long time only to feel a sense of emptiness.
I don't think this obviates the benefits of setting and striving for ambitious goals, but it should give you some pause. It's that whole thing of "enjoying the journey". So it's worth taking a step back every now and then. It's worth remembering that this moment, and the following one too, is all you really have.
Where we end up, I think, is with the realization that we want to set goals and strive to achieve them knowing that we'll probably change our minds throughout the process. And that this is a part of the process. A process that, hopefully, leads to an increasing sense of satisfaction and wellbeing. A process that we enjoy and that is satisfying in and of itself. A process that pushes us to do more than we would have otherwise. The goals inform the process, and the process informs the goals. Clear goals, loosely held.
What I'm reading
The 10 Foundational Practices for a Good Life
10 habits or practices you can (or should) do if you care about getting the most out of your life. A lot of people could probably get a lot more done and be more content with they do if only for a little planning, reflection, and curiosity. A clear theme is that you need to create structures in your life that enable you to do more of what you value and less of what distracts you. Easier said than done.
Upgrade your cargo cult for the win
The central thesis of this article is that real science is an emergent phenomenon, less of a rigorous formalized process and more of a collaborative and social effort. The idea of science as a top-down, formal bureaucracy is a fiction. It's a cargo cult. Instead, science emerges through "communities of practice". This sounds flaky, but it's a useful way of thinking about how we discover what's true and what isn't.
"The lesson of cargo cult science for all human activity is that fixed systems are inadequate, because they never fully engage with the nebulosity of reality. We can, and must, upgrade to better ways of thinking, acting, and organizing our communities."
What I'm watching
The economy of Kazakhstan
This is an illuminating take on a nation that most people have barely heard of outside of the Borat movie(s). Kazakhstan is perfectly positioned both geographically and diplomatically to act as an interface between the US (the West), Russia, and China. Although it's still a rather poor country, its strategic position smack in the middle of Central Asia and its abundance of natural resources means that it's a country with its best days still to come.
What I'm listening to
The Key to Trump’s Appeal
As most of the world breaths a sigh of relief with the election of Joe Biden as the next president of the United States, we shouldn't assume that the ideological forces that made 70+ million Americans vote for Trump have vanished. In this short podcast episode, Sam Harris points out that the key appeal of Trump has less to do with the economy, racism, or hatred of the elite, and more to do with what Trump represents to his electorate. Trump is everything the liberal left isn't. His supporters are maligned as "deplorables", misogynists, and racists. Trump is a martyr for them. He's their savior. He is so profoundly free of any ethical virtues that he becomes the perfect "reverse" scapegoat. Voting for Trump is like ridding yourself of guilt.
"The man is just a bundle of sin and gore and he never pretends to be anything more, perhaps more importantly he never even aspires to be anything more. And because of this, because he is never really judging you - he can't possibly judge you - he offers a truly safe space for human frailty and hypocrisy and self-doubt. He offers what no priest can credibly offer - a total expiation of shame."
Rammstein - Deutschland
As always, stay safe out there.
/Phil